I missed yesterday because I didn’t like any of the games being offered. Smart gamblers not only know when to bet; they also know when to say pass like I did Thursday. And 30-14 in this public arena over the past 44 days is a solid demonstration that I do know what I am doing.
The Los Angeles Angels travel to Minnesota to play the Twins tonight at 8:10pm eastern. Garrett Richards has the ball for the Angels and Lance Lynn takes the bump for the Twins.
The Angels are -125 on the money line. The Rangers at +105 are the home underdog. The Total for tonight’s game is 8.5 runs.
The Angels are 6-6 overall in games Richards starts and 3-3 when Richards starts on the road. Richards has a road ERA of 3.18 and 4.21 xFIP in 28.1 innings pitched. He walks 6.04 and allows 0.95 home runs per nine innings pitched. Hitters have a .301 BABIP and a 24 percent strikeout rate against Richards in his 28.1 innings of work on the road.
The Twins are 5-6 this season when Lynn takes the hill and 2-3 when he starts at home. Lynn has a 3.51 ERA with a 4.48 xFIP in 25.2 innings pitched at home. Lynn allows 6.66 walks and 0.70 home runs per nine innings pitched. Hitters have a .292 BABIP and 23.5 percent strikeout rate against Lynn at home.
The Angels are a top ten offense against right handed pitching. They boast a .176 ISO, .292 BABIP and wRC+ of 110 this season against right handed pitching. The Halos also have a 19.9 percent strikeout rate with a 8.5 percent walk rate.
Against right handed pitching the Twins are a top 20 offense. They have a .173 ISO, .282 BABIP and wRC+ of 96 this season against right handed pitching. Twins hitters also have a 21.6 percent strikeout rate and 9.4 percent walk rate.
The Angels bullpen seems to be fresher tonight. Over the past three days Los Angeles relievers have thrown 92 pitches. The Twins bullpen has thrown just 203 pitches over the past three days. I give the Angels bullpen the edge today.
Play the Twins on the money line tonight!
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Good luck tonight.